Mortgage Application

A decrease in the federal funds target rate generally makes it cheaper for banks to borrow money from each other on a short-term basis. But mortgages are based on longer-term interest rates, which are also influenced by expectations about the economy and inflation. Rates can rise, as they did last week, when investors react to news, such as the Fed cut, and expect it to strengthen the economy or spur inflation, explains Doug Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. According to MBA’s weekly survey, the average interest rates for 30- and 15-year fixed mortgages increased about a tenth of a percentage point over the past week, to 5.6 percent and 5.04 percent, respectively. Read more here…

Housing Research

 By purchasing MacroShares Major Metro Housing securities, investors can benefit from rising home prices without having to call a Realtor. The fund, which is expected to launch before the end of the year, is linked to the closely followed S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indexand allows investors to place bets on the direction of home prices. In a recent interview with U.S. News, Masucci detailed how the product works and explained the different ways it can benefit investors and homeowners alike. Read more here.

Here’s a look at the factors that will be weighing down the housing market in 2009:

1. Recession
After months of speculation, the National Bureau of Economic Research made it official in early December 2008, announcing that the U.S. economy entered into a recession in December 2007. The only question now is: How painful a recession will we have? In a Nov. 21 report, economists at Goldman Sachs revised their previous forecast to reflect a more significant economic contraction and higher unemployment. “We now estimate that real GDP is falling at a 5% annual rate in the current quarter, and we expect this to be followed by declines of 3% and 1% in the next two quarters,” the economists said. “This deepens and extends the expected recession, bringing the drop in GDP close to the decline seen in 1982 (2.3% in our forecast versus 2.7% then).” The recession will exert downward pressure on the housing market in a number of ways.

2. Higher unemployment
The shrinking economy will result in additional layoffs, which will work to smother housing demand. The unemployment rate has already been climbing — in early December it was at 6.5% — but many expect it to increase significantly in the coming year. Goldman Sachs projects the unemployment (more)

The U.S. Senate approves an amendment to the economic stimulus package that would provide a tax credit of up to $15,000 for homebuyers who purchase a primary residence in the coming year. But economists are skeptical tax credits will prove stimulative.

1. A well-groomed neighborhood: Well-maintained homes and landscaping have a positive effect on property values in that community, says Joshua Dorkin, founder and CEO ofBiggerPockets.com, a real-estate networking and information site. By caring for the appearance of their homes, residents help to create a more aesthetically pleasing environment that future real-estate hunters will want to buy into. So when you’re eyeing a home, make sure to take a drive through the entire neighborhood. Take note of how the neighbors care for their homes, lawns and gardens. “Run-down houses and abandoned cars are big red flags,” Dorkin says.

2. Good schools: Given the importance of education, communities located within strong school districts tend to support higher home prices. Parents, after all, will want to move into the communities with the best educational opportunities. “The school district is important in terms of (read more here)

Family biking in nice neighborhood